Saturday 16 November 2013

Biomedical Progress Rates as New Parameters for Models of Economic Growth in Developed Countries

I would like to introduce you my new article:" Biomedical Progress Rates as New Parameters for Models of Economic Growth in Developed Countries".

In this paper me and my colleague, Alex Zhavoronkov, discussed new model of economic growth. Based on statistical data from recent decades, we assumed that the economy of the developed countries will be affected by increased eldery to young people ratio, and this even could cause a crisis.

You can find full free text article here.


While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan) and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative). While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG) growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm.

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